The Yankees find themselves 11 wins from championship 27. The quest begins again tonight. The first step of the journey will be difficult. The Indians are a worthy foe. Can the Yankees advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2004?
The Yankees swept the 6 game season series against the Tribe. We have seen time and again how little the regular season means when it comes to October. The latest lesson was the way the Tigers manhandled the Yankees last October after New York had dominated the regular season series against the boys from MoTown. In this case, the wins might have been a tad deceiving because C.C. Sabathia did not pitch for Cleveland. The dominance of the regular year may not guarantee New York anything, but it does display that the Yanks match up very well with Cleveland.
Many point to the starting rotations as an area of advantage for Cleveland. There is no doubt that C.C. Sabathia should have the edge over Chien-Ming Wang in Game 1, especially considering the game is at Jacobs Field. Sabathia had a Cy Young season and has postseason experience from 2001, his rookie year. The timing of New York’s offense could be off from the 3 day wait between the last game of the regular season and Game 1. Wang was up and down on the road all year long. He is going to have a tough time holding down the Cleveland offense on 7 days of rest, not an optimal wait for a sinkerballer.
After that, though, the edge shifts to New York. Fausto Carmona had a breakout season, winning 19 games and posting a 3.06 ERA. There still is no telling how he will hold up under the pressure of October. This would be not alarming had he not fallen flat onto his face as Cleveland’s closer last year, unable to hold up under the pressure of pitching in the 9th inning. Fausto failed miserably when faced with scrutiny. The same cannot be said of Andy Pettitte, a man who has made a living winning big games in October through his career. Andy is back in his traditional Game 2 role for the Yankees. Andy has had some postseason hiccups in the past, but his 14 career wins in the playoffs show that he gets up for critical contests. Cleveland sends Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd to the mound in Games 3 and 4 in Yankee Stadium. New York owns both pitchers. Westbrook has an ERA over 8.00 against the Yankees since 2004. They scored 12 runs in 8.2 innings against him this season. Byrd has been just as bad and gave up 8 in 2 innings in his only 2007 meeting against the Yankees. He is a guy who tries to get his hitters to chase at bad pitches. New York’s offense is too disciplined for that and tees off on Byrd’s pedestrian stuff when he tries to challenge hitters. Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina are both wild cards at this point, but both have thrived when given long rest this season. Both enter the series on good notes.
Many portray the bullpen as Cleveland’s main strength. The two Rafael’s, Betencourt and Perez, comprised as dominant of a setup pair as there was in baseball in 2007. Aaron Fultz and Jensen Lewis give Eric Wedge two more reliable options out of the bullpen. The Indians’ achilles heel from the bullpen is their closer, Joe Borowski. Borowski’s entrance into a game will be New York’s golden opportunity to win it late. The Yankees have the two best relievers in the series, Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain, but Cleveland might have the next best four. Luis Vizcaino will be a major x-factor. He has had plenty of time off to rest a tired arm. If he can return to form, the Yanks will have a ‘pen that matches up well with Cleveland’s. The Yanks also would be helped if Kyle Farnsworth, Ross Ohlendorf, and/or Jose Veras can channel their great stuff into consistent results. Depending on the night, those three can be unhittable or lit up like a Christmas tree. If they can suddenly channel David Weathers and Graheme Lloyd in 1996, this team will be tough to beat.
There is really no doubt which team has the better offense. The Yankees hold significant hitting edges at third base, shortstop, second base, and rightfield. New York is also better at catcher and leftfield. The bench of Giambi, Molina, Betemit, and Duncan is deeper than Michaels, Nixon, Shoppach, Barfield, and Gomez. The Yankees are in much better shape to overcome an early deficit not only because of their offensive firepower but also because they have an edge with Phil Hughes as a long man, opposed to Aaron Laffey. Hughes came into his own down the stretch, pitching better than his numbers would indicate. He dominated Cleveland’s offense in his only start of 2007 against the Tribe. He should be able to hold down the Indians and give his team a chance to come back when called upon.
This is a very favorable matchup for the Yankees. Wang is likely to lose the opener, but Pettitte is a proven stopper. The Yanks have gotten to Carmona before, and they should be able to hit him in Game 2. The offense should be able to break out against subpar opposition starters in Yankee Stadium. It is unlikely Clemens and Mussina both will pitch poorly after extra rest. The Yanks should be in good shape, even if Hughes does need to stop the bleeding in one of these games. New York has the pitching to get the ball to Joba Chamberlain, who will not have heavy restrictions in this series. Joba can get the ball to Mariano Rivera, who always kicks it into another gear in October. Some call New York’s starting pitching shaky. It will be good enough to give leads to the team’s best 1-2 punch since Rivera-Wetteland in 1996. The Yankees will move to the ALCS.
Prediction: Yankees in four
