Numerous developments emerged over the weekend on the Johan Santana front. One thing is clear. The Twins have had the upper hand on the negotiation front. They are using Boston to leverage the Yankees into giving up a ridiculous return. The Yankees are panicking.
This came as the result of a threat from Boston. Friday night the Red Sox and Twins allegedly started discussing the framework of a deal involving Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, and Jed Lowrie. The Yankees countered by adding Hughes to their deal. This was a clear panic move by the Yankees. New York could have topped that offer even by not including Hughes. Even if they did not want to trade Robinson Cano, a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, and Jose Tabata or Alan Horne would trump that. Kennedy and Lester are roughly equal prospects. Jackson and Tabata or Horne would beat Lowrie. Crisp and Cabrera produced essentially the same output at the plate in 2007, but Melky is much more valuable. He is vastly younger and cheaper, is further away from free agency, and is years from his prime.
Including Hughes makes little sense in any event. For years, everybody in baseball has raved about him as a future Cy Young winner. There is not a dissenting opinion to be found. The Yankees have kept him off limits in every possible deal. Now all of the sudden, Joba Chamberlain is the untouchable jewel. Joba was phenomenal in 2007, but there is a difference between being a dominant starter and a dominant reliever. He will not be able to throw at the same velocity over a 6 to 7 inning span that he was in a short relief role. He also will need to get all of his pitches over the plate. This is not to say he is incapable of becoming an elite starter, but he is no more proven than Hughes in the rotation. The only possible explanation is that Joba became too popular with the fans to trade, which is not a great basis for making a decision like this. This is not to say that the Yankees should deal Chamberlain for Santana. It is only to say that there is no reason to value Joba over Hughes right now.
It seems like the Yanks also might be balking at Phil’s perceived struggles in 2007. The fact of the matter is that he was not healthy for most of the year. As his hamstring got stronger in September, his velocity returned. Once this happened, he started to deliver on his promise, posting a 2.73 ERA in the final month of the regular season. Hughes started to look like the shutdown starter into which everybody knows he will develop. He also pitched dominant baseball with his team’s season riding in the balance in Game 3 of the ALDS. Hughes showed that he has the stuff to become a top pitcher in 2008. Dealing a 21 year old ace for a 29 year old ace does not make much sense.
Hank Steinbrenner has set today as a deadline for any Santana deal. It is tough to believe him since he was so paranoid by a Boston offer that he threw Hughes into the deal immediately, although leaving the table is probably a better course than dealing Hughes, especially with Andy Pettitte back in the fold. The Twins are apparently demanding another high quality prospect, either Alan Horne, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson in addition to Hughes and an above average young centerfielder, Cabrera. This comes as Boston is reluctant to give up Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury together in a package. They will not include Clay Buchholz as part of any deal, which makes one wonder why the Yankees will give up Hughes. If the Sox do not have to include Buchholz in their offer, there is no reason for the Yanks to throw Hughes in there. The Yankees will look like even bigger fools if they cave. Today we will find out whether Hank and company can ever stand resolute on anything. This is the guy who claimed the team was done negotiating with Alex Rodriguez and made the panic move of offering Hughes. He is probably bluffing.
If Minnesota is going to be this inflexible, New York ought to dare the Twins to send Santana to Boston for a subpar offer. Then they should ask about Joe Nathan, who is also available. Getting Nathan would solidify the bullpen and allow the Yanks to put Joba Chamberlain into the rotation. New York would have a Hughes-Chamberlain combination to counter a Santana-Beckett pairing.
The best course of action would be to build a deal around Robinson Cano, but the Yankees seem to think a middle infielder is more important than protecting a future elite pitcher. It shows that Hank shares his father’s obsession with big hitters over building through pitching. Cano is the best second baseman in the American League, but he is in no way more valuable than a shutdown starter like Hughes or Santana, especially considering the copious amounts of quality lefty hitters already on the roster.
