Pettitte’s Sensitivity to Doom Him?

In the wake of the Mitchell Report and Andy Pettitte’s subsequent admissions and apologies for HGH use, many media pundits have called this a death nail into any hopes that Andy will have a successful 2008 season. They claim that the attention the microscope the fans and media will put him under will crush him. They say the guilt of his actions will destroy his mental state. While this makes for nice headline fodder for the slow news days of Spring Training, it is difficult to figure on what they are basing this.

Andy Pettitte’s mental toughness has been one of his greatest attributes during his long career.  A pitcher cannot thrive in New York without great inner strength to block out distractions. This city has eaten alive players with far more physical talent, but Andy has thrived in the scrutiny. Perhaps there will be more attention on him than before, but Pettitte probably would not have won 14 career postseason games unless he could block out external distractions and pressure. Some claim that Fenway Park will now be much more hostile, but how much worse can it get for a Yankee? The fans there are ruthless. Andy has not been bothered in the past by insults of his family and questions on his sexuality up there. How much are chants of “HGH” and “Mitchell” really going to throw him off his game?

Others claim that Andy will feel a sense of shame as a man who prides himself on being a good Christian. This might be true, but logic seems to suggest the opposite. Pettitte was living a lie in the past never certain when his indiscretion would come out. That would be the kind of thing that would burden him. Now he has come clean. He has nothing to hide. Christianity is a religion based upon redemption and atonement for mistakes. According to his religion, Andy Pettitte now has unburdened himself.

The fallout from Pettitte also seems to be overblown. After admitting his mistake, Andy has taken the target off his back. The American society is a forgiving one for people willing to fess up to what they have done and attempting to move past it. Look to politics for an example. During his first run for President, George W. Bush was constantly dogged by the media for being evasive in regard to his less than storied past. Barack Obama has dealt with none of the same difficulties because he readily admitted mistakes from his youth. The guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who vehemently deny any wrongdoing get grilled. Guys like Pettitte and Jason Giambi skate relatively freely. Giambi was grilled early on, but the media turned his into a story of redemption the second he got hot in 2005.

HGH did not make Andy Pettitte into a high quality pitcher. He was a top of the rotation starter for this team before he met Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee. He pitched at a high level for the Astros at the end of 2005 while throwing in the low 80’s. He was effective before using HGH. He will be effective again. The biggest worry would have been the effects of cycling off had he used for his entire career and was a product of steroid use. Nobody seems to believe that was the case.

The concerns over Pettitte are typical media fodder. The writers are bored in Spring Training and trying to stir something up to get fans in a frenzy. I personally will never look at Andy Pettitte the same way again. I am grossly disappointed that he would stoop to cheating and lie about the extent of it until he went to Congress. At the same time, there is no reason to worry that this will affect him. There are plenty of reasons why Andy Pettitte might decline this season, namely the effects of age and injury. This whole steroid mess is not one of them.

Potential Nontender Targets

Looking at the list of nontendered players across the league, the Yankees have a number of chances to go bargain shopping.

Akinori Otsuka: Otsuka should immediately become Brian Cashman’s top priority. The rebuilding Rangers did not feel like paying the 35 year old coming off an elbow injury. Otsuka suffered no structural damage and did not need major surgery. He is a proven setup man in the American League with a career 2.44 ERA. Right now Mariano Rivera is the only reliable thing in the bullpen. The addition of Otsuka would help relieve some concerns over the state of the relief corps. He is infinitely better than anything this team currently has as a bridge to Mariano Rivera (excluding the possibility of moving Joba Chamberlain back to the bullpen).

Mark Prior: Considering Prior’s extensive injury history, a lot of people would view him as an unappealing target. People need to remember that he is only 27 years old. The Cubs mistreated a shoulder ailment for years. Dr. James Andrews finally cleaned up his shoulder earlier this season. He was once an elite pitcher and has a 3.51 career ERA. The Yankees would not have to depend on him to be part of the rotation. He could start out in the minors and work back at his own pace. His fastball will not have the same velocity it once did, but he still could salvage it as an above average pitch to go with a terrific curveball and impeccable control. Guys with this kind of potential do not hit the open market on a discount often. All signing Prior would cost this team is money. He is worth a flier.

Morgan Ensberg: After a great 2005, Ensberg’s career fell off a cliff. Even when he posted subpar 2006 and 2007 numbers, he killed lefty pitching. He would not be a bad guy to have as a bench player or put into the mix as part of a first base platoon.

Kevin Mench: Mench is another great hitter against lefties. He would be a good reserve outfielder.

Dallas McPherson: The 27 year old was once a top prospect for the Angels. Injuries hampered his career, but a change of scenery might help him harness that untapped potential.

Kiko Calero and Juan Rincon: The Yankees should target these guys for minor league deals. Both are former terrific middle relievers who got lit up in 2007. Either could come back strong. If they want guaranteed roster spots, it would be best to let them go elsewhere. This team is already guaranteeing one shaky veteran commodity, LaTroy Hawkins a roster spot. Giving either of these guys similar treatment could end up blocking a younger player performing. It is best to keep flexibility in the bullpen unless adding something terrific like Otsuka.

Yankees Looking Bad in Santana Sweepstakes

Numerous developments emerged over the weekend on the Johan Santana front. One thing is clear. The Twins have had the upper hand on the negotiation front. They are using Boston to leverage the Yankees into giving up a ridiculous return. The Yankees are panicking.

This came as the result of a threat from Boston. Friday night the Red Sox and Twins allegedly started discussing the framework of a deal involving Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, and Jed Lowrie. The Yankees countered by adding Hughes to their deal. This was a clear panic move by the Yankees. New York could have topped that offer even by not including Hughes. Even if they did not want to trade Robinson Cano, a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, and Jose Tabata or Alan Horne would trump that. Kennedy and Lester are roughly equal prospects. Jackson and Tabata or Horne would beat Lowrie. Crisp and Cabrera produced essentially the same output at the plate in 2007, but Melky is much more valuable. He is vastly younger and cheaper, is further away from free agency, and is years from his prime.

Including Hughes makes little sense in any event. For years, everybody in baseball has raved about him as a future Cy Young winner. There is not a dissenting opinion to be found. The Yankees have kept him off limits in every possible deal. Now all of the sudden, Joba Chamberlain is the untouchable jewel. Joba was phenomenal in 2007, but there is a difference between being a dominant starter and a dominant reliever. He will not be able to throw at the same velocity over a 6 to 7 inning span that he was in a short relief role. He also will need to get all of his pitches over the plate. This is not to say he is incapable of becoming an elite starter, but he is no more proven than Hughes in the rotation. The only possible explanation is that Joba became too popular with the fans to trade, which is not a great basis for making a decision like this. This is not to say that the Yankees should deal Chamberlain for Santana. It is only to say that there is no reason to value Joba over Hughes right now.

It seems like the Yanks also might be balking at Phil’s perceived struggles in 2007. The fact of the matter is that he was not healthy for most of the year. As his hamstring got stronger in September, his velocity returned. Once this happened, he started to deliver on his promise, posting a 2.73 ERA in the final month of the regular season. Hughes started to look like the shutdown starter into which everybody knows he will develop. He also pitched dominant baseball with his team’s season riding in the balance in Game 3 of the ALDS. Hughes showed that he has the stuff to become a top pitcher in 2008. Dealing a 21 year old ace for a 29 year old ace does not make much sense.

Hank Steinbrenner has set today as a deadline for any Santana deal. It is tough to believe him since he was so paranoid by a Boston offer that he threw Hughes into the deal immediately, although leaving the table is probably a better course than dealing Hughes, especially with Andy Pettitte back in the fold. The Twins are apparently demanding another high quality prospect, either Alan Horne, Ian Kennedy, or Austin Jackson in addition to Hughes and an above average young centerfielder, Cabrera. This comes as Boston is reluctant to give up Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury together in a package. They will not include Clay Buchholz as part of any deal, which makes one wonder why the Yankees will give up Hughes. If the Sox do not have to include Buchholz in their offer, there is no reason for the Yanks to throw Hughes in there. The Yankees will look like even bigger fools if they cave. Today we will find out whether Hank and company can ever stand resolute on anything. This is the guy who claimed the team was done negotiating with Alex Rodriguez and made the panic move of offering Hughes. He is probably bluffing.

If Minnesota is going to be this inflexible, New York ought to dare the Twins to send Santana to Boston for a subpar offer. Then they should ask about Joe Nathan, who is also available. Getting Nathan would solidify the bullpen and allow the Yanks to put Joba Chamberlain into the rotation. New York would have a Hughes-Chamberlain combination to counter a Santana-Beckett pairing.

The best course of action would be to build a deal around Robinson Cano, but the Yankees seem to think a middle infielder is more important than protecting a future elite pitcher. It shows that Hank shares his father’s obsession with big hitters over building through pitching. Cano is the best second baseman in the American League, but he is in no way more valuable than a shutdown starter like Hughes or Santana, especially considering the copious amounts of quality lefty hitters already on the roster.

My Revised Wishlist

This is a list of potential successors to Joe Torre in order of my preference. Trey Hillman and Tony La Russa have been taken off from the last list because they are no longer on the market. John Farrell has been added as his name has surfaced as a candidate.

1. Tony Pena

2. Joe Girardi

3. Bobby Valentine

4. Buck Showalter

5. Lou Piniella

6. Don Mattingly

7. John Farrell

8. Larry Bowa

I have bumped Pena past Girardi. The more I have thought about it, the more I like Pena. Hiring him would leave the most stability as the players love him. He could probably talk most of the coaching staff into returning, and his great working relationship with Jorge Posada would make the catcher more likely to return. These are all reasons that some argue Don Mattingly should get the job. Unlike Mattingly, though, Pena also has a track record of managerial success.

The Torre Era in Perspective

With the recent October “failures” of the Yankees, a lot of people do not realize the significance of Joe Torre’s departure. It is fair to say that fans of the Bronx Bombers have become spoiled by success. The fact that only reaching the postseason is now a major disappointment speaks volumes about the excellence, which became standard under Joe. The fact of the matter is that the Joe Torre Era was one of the highest points for baseball’s most successful franchise.

The Yankees are synonymous with success. Few managers had as much success as Joe Torre did. Only Joe McCarthy won more games managing the Yankees. Torre won as many pennants as Miller Huggins did. He won four World Series titles to Huggins’ three. McCarthy and Casey Stengel both won more pennants and World Series titles. McCarthy had eight and seven respectively, while Stengel had ten and seven. Those were different times, though. The other three only had to finish in first place in the regular season to win the pennant and win a single October series to win it all.

Torre had to navigate through two postseason rounds just to win the American League title. Then he had to win the World Series. Short series can come down to a lucky bounce or two. If a quality pitcher has a bad week, his team can go home. With so much up to chance, it is unlikely for a team to have consistent success in October. Look at the Atlanta Braves. They were in the postseason every year from 1991 to 2005 and won a single World Series. They played a large role in their own fate, but some things were out of their control during that run. During the 1990’s, they consistently had the best team and could not win multiple titles. The fact that Torre’s early teams were always able to overcome those pitfalls and win is remarkable. Many (myself included) have openly wondered what the recent incarnations of the Yankees are doing wrong in October. Perhaps the real dilemma is figuring how Joe got the 1996 to 2001 teams to overcome every obstacle.

Forget about Yankees history. Baseball history has not seen a team put together a run like Torre’s in over four decades. The only other team to come close, Bobby Cox’s Braves, were bitter October failures next to Joe Torre’s teams. They won one less pennant and three less World Series. Twice the Yankees beat the Braves to win the World Series. This includes the 1996 World Series, when the Yankees were vast underdogs and got destroyed at home in the first two games. Joe outmanaged Cox in that series. The Big Red Machine, a legendary collection of players, is a blip on the radar compared with Joe Torre’s Yankees.  Joe did not even have a single off season with the Yanks. The worst he ever did was losing in the Division Series. That would represent the high-water mark for a number of teams from 1996 to 2007. Nobody else in baseball made the postseason every year since Torre took over. Beyond that, Torre was the only manager from the 2006 postseason to make it back in 2007. No matter how high a team’s payroll is, there is no guarantee of success. The Red Sox were $20 million clear of every other Wild Card competitor in 2006 but were out of the race in August. The Mets had the National League’s highest payroll in many of Torre’s years and missed the postseason, including the 2007 season.

The most impressive part of Torre’s job was the pressure he was under. Huggins, McCarthy, and Stengel never had to work for George Steinbrenner. Steinbrenner might be the most demanding and impatient owner ever. Nobody has any job security under George. In the words of George Costanza, “He fires people like it’s a bodily fuction.” Every other manager under George cracked under the pressure or gave the owner justification for dismissal. Joe always kept his cool and shielded his team from the intense scrutiny the outside world gave them. Torre managed this team in the era of talk radio and the internet. Teams are now under closer scrutiny than ever. No other great Yankees manager faced these obstacles, but Joe did so with ease. With an extremely impatient owner and fanbase, only Bobby Cox had a longer current tenure with the same team than Torre did at the time of his departure. The Yankees were so afraid of the backlash from firing him when they wanted to that they even made a token offer.

Joe embodied class. Even hardened Yankees haters said that they at least had a healthy respect for the job that Joe Torre did. They could not completely despise a classy man of such dignity. He will be difficult to replace. It has been a long time since anybody has seen a run like Torre’s with the Yankees. Joe belongs on the Mount Rushmore of Yankees managers along with Huggins, McCarthy, and Stengel. He made it look easy. Some fans actually believe it is easy. They say they are ready for a new era. It certainly will not be as good as this one was. Why anybody would ever want a run this successful to end is baffling. People soon will realize just how good they had it.

Cutting Through Levine’s Double Talk

Q: How do you know that Randy Levine is embarrassing the Yankees organization?

A: His mouth is moving.

This is not the first time that I have used that joke on this blog, but such words have never been more prevalent. The act Levine put on yesterday at the press conference was an education in spin.

“The goal of this franchise is to win the World Series. All of us get up every day knowing that is the goal and all us take that responsibility on. Unfortunately we have not met that goal for seven years.”

Levine claims that failure to win is everybody’s responsibility. Why then does he bring it up specifically to explain why a manager is not returning to the team? Why does he use it to justify a lowball offer designed to make Joe Torre reject it? Is Levine taking a paycut for the team’s failures? Lord knows he is always front and center to take credit at press conferences whenever the Yankees acquire a key player and typically getting praise.

“We thought that we need to go to a performance-based model, having nothing to do with Joe Torre’s character, integrity or ability. We just think it’s important to motivate people.”

The team had $1 million apiece in incentives in its offer for making the postseason, the ALCS, and the World Series. It would be one thing if these were supposed to act as a reward, but it is for motivation. Is Levine seriously suggesting that Joe Torre has lacked motivation? Does he think that Joe Torre is not fighting with every fiber of his being to win a World Series? Does he think that $1 million will motivate him when the glory of winning it all and saving his job will not? It is amazing that Levine can say Joe has not put maximum effort into guiding this franchise. It is downright shameful. I ask Randy Levine when his pay becomes performance-based. Did he not admit to being part of the failure?

“We thought it was very fair, clearly at the top of the market, but we respect Joe’s decision.”

Since when do the Yankees draw a line in the figurative sand when it comes to finances with somebody they really want? They sure as heck did not with Roger Clemens just a few months ago. Negotiation requires listening to the other side and reassessing offers. One does not make one offer to somebody one really wants. The word is that the Yankees did not even ask Joe what parameters he would find acceptable. They did not even consider anything for which Torre would ask. That does not sound like a guy that a team really wants around. If the Yankees sincerely wanted Joe to stay, they never would have set a hard cap at $2 million below what he made this year.

It is very telling that Levine was the one to make the announcement. It was not Brian Cashman or one of the Steinbrenners. This says that Levine is now speaking for the organization. In the power vacuum created by George Steinbrenner’s failing health and Steve Swindal’s departure, Levine has gained more influence. As a shameless self-promoter, it is what he does best. Randy Levine now has major influence within the organization. He just drove out one of his enemies, Joe Torre. Now he gets to gloat about it. Congratulations, Randy, the Yankees have lost a Hall of Fame manager because of you.

My Wishlist

I recently put together nine profiles on potential candidates to succeed Joe Torre. If I had to choose among them, this would be my wishlist.

1. Trey Hillman

2. Joe Girardi

3. Tony Pena

4. Bobby Valentine

5. Buck Showalter

6. Lou Piniella

7. Tony La Russa

8. Don Mattingly

9. Larry Bowa

A Sneak Peak at the New Yankee Stadium

MLB.com offers a preview of what the New Yankee Stadium will look like when it opens in 2009. It also displays several other new stadiums. This park is going to be a jewel and make the team plenty of money it can put back into the product of the feel. Still, something does not feel right about the new park opening. Yankee Stadium has an aura to it. Whenever one steps onto the sacred ground, there is an aura to the place. You know that you are looking at the same place that Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, and Berra played. All the modern amenities in the world cannot match that feeling. The new park will be nice, but the Yankees will be losing a critical part of their history when this new stadium goes up. It is something that money cannot buy.

This Is NOT Over

An 0-2 hole is daunting. Last night’s loss was devastating. People need to remember, though, that it takes 3 wins to end a series. If people are down, they should look to 3 numbers for hope.

*52-29

That was the Yankees’ home record this year. New York returns home for Games 3 and 4. Cleveland is off to a great start, but those games were at Jacobs Field. That crowd took them to another place. Most of those players have never faced a crowd like they will see on Sunday night. It is one thing for a young team to play well in front of a raucous crowd cheering for it. It is quite another for the same young team to not get rattled by a hostile environment. Cleveland also had a pair of Cy Young candidates take the hill for those games. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd are not C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. They are very hittable, and the Yanks have a great track record of success against both.

*21-29

That was the Yankees’ record at one point this season. This team was written off and left for dead by a number of pundits. This club thrived on that adversity and played its best ball when it had to. The Yankees have had their backs against the wall before, and they could not have responded better. Why would they play any differently in the same situation once again?

*7-2

That was the score in the 8th inning on September 14 in Fenway Park. The Yankees scored 6 before making an out in that inning to register an 8-7 win. If anybody doubted this team’s mettle after their comeback during this season, that game should have erased it. I wrote after that game, ”This was more than just a win. It was a sign that this team can realistically win a championship this season. The Yankees can carry this with them for the rest of the year. They can call on this experience when things look bleak in October. If they can overcome a 5 run deficit off a pair of the game’s best relievers without recording an out, they will have confidence in any situation.” Over the past few years, we have seen Yankees teams fold like an accordion when faced with tough spots in October. The 2007 version looks different.

People may say that this situation is different from the situation in 2001, when New York overcame an 0-2 hole in the ALDS against Oakland. The Yankees do not have the same championship core that they did back then, but the situation being different is not entirely a negative. This time the Yanks are going home, not across the country. The losses came on the road, not at home. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd are not Barry Zito and Cory Lidle, at the time arguably the best 3 and 4 starters in the game. The Yankees need a single good performance. If they take the game on Sunday, the pressure shifts to Cleveland. This Indians team has never been in a situation like this before. They could easily start to doubt themselves in front of a hostile crowd. If the Yankees can ride their home crowd to Game 5, anything can happen. New York will likely have Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte on the mound for the final pair of games in this series. Those are the two most reliable starters on the roster. The point is that things may look bad now, but all is not lost.

ALDS Preview

The Yankees find themselves 11 wins from championship 27. The quest begins again tonight. The first step of the journey will be difficult. The Indians are a worthy foe. Can the Yankees advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2004?

The Yankees swept the 6 game season series against the Tribe. We have seen time and again how little the regular season means when it comes to October. The latest lesson was the way the Tigers manhandled the Yankees last October after New York had dominated the regular season series against the boys from MoTown. In this case, the wins might have been a tad deceiving because C.C. Sabathia did not pitch for Cleveland. The dominance of the regular year may not guarantee New York anything, but it does display that the Yanks match up very well with Cleveland.

Many point to the starting rotations as an area of advantage for Cleveland. There is no doubt that C.C. Sabathia should have the edge over Chien-Ming Wang in Game 1, especially considering the game is at Jacobs Field. Sabathia had a Cy Young season and has postseason experience from 2001, his rookie year. The timing of New York’s offense could be off from the 3 day wait between the last game of the regular season and Game 1. Wang was up and down on the road all year long. He is going to have a tough time holding down the Cleveland offense on 7 days of rest, not an optimal wait for a sinkerballer.

After that, though, the edge shifts to New York. Fausto Carmona had a breakout season, winning 19 games and posting a 3.06 ERA. There still is no telling how he will hold up under the pressure of October. This would be not alarming had he not fallen flat onto his face as Cleveland’s closer last year, unable to hold up under the pressure of pitching in the 9th inning. Fausto failed miserably when faced with scrutiny. The same cannot be said of Andy Pettitte, a man who has made a living winning big games in October through his career. Andy is back in his traditional Game 2 role for the Yankees. Andy has had some postseason hiccups in the past, but his 14 career wins in the playoffs show that he gets up for critical contests. Cleveland sends Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd to the mound in Games 3 and 4 in Yankee Stadium. New York owns both pitchers. Westbrook has an ERA over 8.00 against the Yankees since 2004. They scored 12 runs in 8.2 innings against him this season. Byrd has been just as bad and gave up 8 in 2 innings in his only 2007 meeting against the Yankees. He is a guy who tries to get his hitters to chase at bad pitches. New York’s offense is too disciplined for that and tees off on Byrd’s pedestrian stuff when he tries to challenge hitters. Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina are both wild cards at this point, but both have thrived when given long rest this season. Both enter the series on good notes.

Many portray the bullpen as Cleveland’s main strength. The two Rafael’s, Betencourt and Perez, comprised as dominant of a setup pair as there was in baseball in 2007. Aaron Fultz and Jensen Lewis give Eric Wedge two more reliable options out of the bullpen. The Indians’ achilles heel from the bullpen is their closer, Joe Borowski. Borowski’s entrance into a game will be New York’s golden opportunity to win it late. The Yankees have the two best relievers in the series, Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain, but Cleveland might have the next best four. Luis Vizcaino will be a major x-factor. He has had plenty of time off to rest a tired arm. If he can return to form, the Yanks will have a ‘pen that matches up well with Cleveland’s. The Yanks also would be helped if Kyle Farnsworth, Ross Ohlendorf, and/or Jose Veras can channel their great stuff into consistent results. Depending on the night, those three can be unhittable or lit up like a Christmas tree. If they can suddenly channel David Weathers and Graheme Lloyd in 1996, this team will be tough to beat.

There is really no doubt which team has the better offense. The Yankees hold significant hitting edges at third base, shortstop, second base, and rightfield. New York is also better at catcher and leftfield. The bench of Giambi, Molina, Betemit, and Duncan is deeper than Michaels, Nixon, Shoppach, Barfield, and Gomez. The Yankees are in much better shape to overcome an early deficit not only because of their offensive firepower but also because they have an edge with Phil Hughes as a long man, opposed to Aaron Laffey. Hughes came into his own down the stretch, pitching better than his numbers would indicate. He dominated Cleveland’s offense in his only start of 2007 against the Tribe. He should be able to hold down the Indians and give his team a chance to come back when called upon.

This is a very favorable matchup for the Yankees. Wang is likely to lose the opener, but Pettitte is a proven stopper. The Yanks have gotten to Carmona before, and they should be able to hit him in Game 2. The offense should be able to break out against subpar opposition starters in Yankee Stadium. It is unlikely Clemens and Mussina both will pitch poorly after extra rest. The Yanks should be in good shape, even if Hughes does need to stop the bleeding in one of these games. New York has the pitching to get the ball to Joba Chamberlain, who will not have heavy restrictions in this series. Joba can get the ball to Mariano Rivera, who always kicks it into another gear in October. Some call New York’s starting pitching shaky. It will be good enough to give leads to the team’s best 1-2 punch since Rivera-Wetteland in 1996. The Yankees will move to the ALCS.

Prediction: Yankees in four