It is that time of year again. In what has become a tradition on this blog, I will now pretend to be Brian Cashman and guide the Yankees through the offseason, building a contender for Spring Training.
Disclaimer: I have done a great deal of reading to see where teams stand and what it would take to get the players I will acquire. Based on that buzz, I feel confident that all of my transactions are reasonable. Although my readers will almost certainly find some of these transactions implausible, I have good reason to believe that they are all possible.
Sign Joe Torre to a 2 year/$10 million contract:
Torre certainly has flaws, but he is still the best manager for this team. He got a team full of high-priced veterans to fight through a rough start this year, caused by an inordinate number of injuries to the pitching staff, when they could have just packed in their season. If motivating players like that was easy, Ozzie Guillen would have never let the White Sox fall into the tank. Joe helps to shield his players from the expectations of a maniacal owner and base of fans, who demand nothing but excellence. His faults in handling the bullpen and staying too loyal to veterans are overblown by his detractors. This team has had nothing other than astounding success under Torre. It has never missed the postseason under Joe’s watch. No candidate to replace him could handle this team as well as Joe Torre. His pitching let him down in the postseason. Firing him for failing to get past Cleveland would be totally unfair. It was not his fault that Chien-Ming Wang laid a pair of eggs. He is a 19 game winner. The team may not have won the World Series in seven years, but it is not as easy to win it all as Joe made it look early in his tenure. With no obvious qualified successor, any change would be made for the sake of change. That is always a bad idea. Torre can take a paycut because he was making a ridiculous amount of money compared with other skippers, but he should stay.
Hire Leo Mazzone as pitching coach and reassign Ron Guidry to work in the minor leagues:
This move is not a reflection on Guidry’s work. He has done a fine job in his two years as pitching coach. Mazzone just might be the best ever and is now a free agent. Mazzone has an astounding track record in working with young pitchers. He has developed Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Erik Bedard. He also has worked wonders with numerous pitchers possessing good stuff, who could never seem to put it together without him. Jaret Wright, John Burkett, Mike Remlinger, and Chris Hammond are examples. His Baltimore pitching staffs struggled because he had very little with which to work. He still got great results from Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Jeremy Guthrie. There are studies out showing that the pitchers he has coached have been significantly better with Mazzone than they were with others. There is no better mentor for the young pitchers the Yankees have. Guidry has been a positive influence for the organization’s pitching talent so he can share his knowledge for prospects with a reduced workload. The team might offer him a raise for him to step aside.
Hire Trey Hillman as bench coach:
Hillman was an extremely successful manager for the Yankees’ minor league system for almost a decade. He won three Minor League Manager of the Year Awards. He then went to Japan and won the Japan Series in 2006. Hillman has announced that he will return to the states over family concerns and will seek a job in some capacity with a Major League team. Hillman has been successful everywhere he has gone. He has a brilliant baseball mind. At times, he has been called too calculating as his devotion to putting the best team on the field has rubbed players he benched the wrong way. He can focus on strategy, which is a strength. Joe Torre is a master of dealing with personalities. This will give the team another strong voice with a different perspective in a position of power. Hillman and Torre would make a good team. Hillman understands the culture with the Yankees and wants to become a Major League manager. This would be a great platform to get his name known better.
Name Don Mattingly manager of the Trenton Thunder:
Mattingly wants to manage the Yankees. He is going to have to pay his dues. The first thing he needs to do is get some managerial experience. Taking over New York’s AA affiliate will allow him to learn what goes into running a team. He can work through some of his growing pains in obscurity. Managing the Yankees is tough enough without having to learn on the job. This will allow Don to cut his teeth as a manager.
Sign Mariano Rivera to a 2 year/$26 million contract:
Mo says that he wants to be the closer when the Yankees open their new stadium in 2009. There is no reason to not honor that wish. After a rough start to the year, Mariano looked as good as ever to finish. New York’s bullpen is rather thin even with him. It would be frightening to imagine filling the hole that the greatest closer ever would leave.
Sign Jorge Posada to a 3 year/$42 million contract:
Jorge had a monster year at age 36. It is unlikely that a catcher of his age will ever approach numbers like that again. The Yankees still have to resign him. There are no options on the open market or within the organization that will approach his production from the catcher position. This does not even touch on the leadership he provides within the locker room. The Yanks would be foolish to let Jorge get away.
Sign Alex Rodriguez to a 7 year/$210 million contract extension:
This one could go either way, but the Yankees would be wise to lock up A-Rod before he hits the market. Anybody who says that the Yankees cannot afford to lose Alex is being silly. He could not have done more early in the year, and the team still struggled. When New York turned things around after the All-Star break, Rodriguez was not doing anything terribly special with the bat. It was mainly that Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Robinson Cano started hitting. With that said, A-Rod is going to be very tough to replace. There are not many good options out on the market. Mike Lowell would probably be the best, and he will demand far more than he is worth after a monster contract year. He is also nowhere near the player that Rodriguez is. Losing A-Rod would cost the team its only source of power from the right side, making New York extremely vulnerable to lefty pitching. The Yanks would also have to replace his stellar defense at third with a pitching staff that will rely heavily on groundball pitchers. A-Rod is a superstar in the prime of his career. He is a first ballot Hall of Famer. He might not be the only reason that people come to see the Yankees, but it is not an accident that the team’s attendance has spiked since he joined the team. People take their kids just to see A-Rod play. Keeping him would guarantee that people would look back at these Yankees as having the greatest left side of an infield ever. With his 9th inning heroics and solid postseason, Alex seems to have overcome the pressure and stigma that daunted him earlier in his tenure in New York. The Yanks should make sure that one of the greatest players ever ends his career with the greatest franchise in baseball, where he is likely to age gracefully. Things look bright for A-Rod in New York. Even if everything heads south, he still will have a lot of trade value. New York should be proactive and get this done before he opts out of his contract so that Texas will still foot some of the bill for the next three years. It is not that the Yanks cannot live without A-Rod. Life is just much easier with him.
Exercise Bobby Abreu’s team option for 2008:
Abreu is a perfect fit for this team. He does not cause a stir in the clubhouse and seems undeterred by big market pressure. He wears out pitchers with his amazing selectivity at the plate. He gets on base. He plays a decent rightfield and owns a strong arm. Even though he looked utterly lost for about a month in an unfathomable slump this year, he still recovered to post really good numbers, including 101 RBI’s. Abreu is a perfect third hitter. Nobody available is a better option.
Let Luis Vizcaino leave via free agency:
2007 was an up and down year for Vizcaino. He is a solid reliever, but the Yankees will be able to replace his production in cheaper ways. Letting Vizcaino leave for greener pastures will also likely net the club a pair of picks in the 2008 MLB Draft for compensation. This can help stock the farm system.
Sign Jose Molina to a 2 year/$4 million contract:
Molina is the best backup catcher the Yankees have had since Joe Girardi. His hitting is adequate compared to other backup catchers across baseball. Even when he is not hitting, he still has value because of the way he handles a pitching staff, his ability to throw out runners, and his overall defense. Few are better behind the plate. He can help take some of Posada’s load as Jorge ages.
Pray that Andy Pettitte exercises his player option for 2008:
Pettitte picked up right where he left off with the Yankees. He provided necessary stability at the front of the rotation. He came through multiple times to end losing streaks, and his performance in Game 2 of the ALDS at Cleveland was a masterpiece. Andy seems to thrive on pressure. He loves pitching in New York as much as Carl Pavano shies away from it. It will be tough to replace a guy of his value.
Offer Ron Villone a nonroster invitation to Spring Training:
Villone loves being a Yankee. He took a nonroster invite to attend Spring Training in 2007, even when he had other offers. He would likely do the same in 2008. The Yankees should not commit anything to an up and down pitcher, but it would be worth a look to see whether a veteran guy has anything left in the tank.
Let Doug Mientkiewicz leave via free agency:
Doug did an admirable job in September, but there are better first basemen to be had. The Yankees already have Andy Phillips, essentially the same player, under their control for cheaper than it would be to retain Doug.
Make Hideki Matsui the permanent designated hitter:
Matsui’s defense has gone downhill as he has aged. He turns too many routine flyballs into adventures and has limited range. Hideki might not be a major liability, but he is below average in the field. He is still a potent hitter and has taken to the DH role. Having him DH will limit the wear and tear on his aging body.
Trade Johnny Damon (with $13 million) to the Braves for Joey Devine and Scott Thorman:
The Braves need a replacement for Andruw Jones. They showed interest in Damon during the season. The sticking point was money. Johnny has served the Yankees well, but his body is breaking down. He has played through injuries in the past three years. His all out play is catching up with him as he ages. The time to deal him is now because his value is still high. If subsidizing half of his deal means getting something of value back, the Yanks should do it. Devine is a flamethrowing reliever with closer potential. He dominated AA and AAA last year and pitched very well in a brief Major League stint. He should be ready to contribute in a Major League bullpen in 2008. Thorman is a first base prospect. He will be 26 on Opening Day and projects as a potential fifth hitter. He struggled in 2007 with the Braves but still has potential. The lefty would be a good fit for Yankee Stadium. Atlanta’s addition of Mark Teixeira makes him expendable. The Braves have never been shy about dealing their prospects. If they can get Damon at a reasonable price, they will make sure the deal gets done.
Trade Matt DeSalvo to the Nationals for Nick Johnson:
The Nats have no room for Johnson. Nick missed the entire 2007 season due to complications from a broken leg. He is set to make $5.5 million, and Washington has Dmitri Young to man first base. Since he is coming off a serious injury, his trade value is nonexistent. This is the kind of gamble a big market team can take. Nick has a great eye at the plate. His career on base percentage is .395. He posted a .428 on base percentage in 2006. He also played great defense at first base, although it remains unseen how the injury will affect him in the field. He will only be 29 years old on Opening Day. This deal would be low-risk, high-reward. If Johnson can come close to his old production, New York’s lineup gets much deeper and gains yet another grinder. The Yankees could utilize Shelley Duncan and Wilson Betemit to take some games at first and keep Johnson fresh. Washington will likely only ask for a marginal prospect like DeSalvo just to free up some money. They are so desperate for pitching that DeSalvo could conceivably crack their 2008 rotation.
Trade Kyle Farnsworth (with $4 million) and Brian Bruney to the Devil Rays for Rocco Baldelli:
The Devil Rays have no real use for the oft-injured Baldelli now that B.J. Upton has emerged as an outfielder. Like Johnson, Baldelli has been slowed by injuries and has little trade value. He could be a free agent next year if the Devil Rays turn down a lucrative club option. Given his injury problems and the current makeup of their team, the Rays really have no choice but to do so. That means the time is now for them to move Rocco. In return, they would get some desperately needed bullpen help. Farnsworth was never a good fit in New York, given his personality. In the laid back atmosphere of Tampa Bay, he could emerge as a top closer and bring back a lot for the Rays in a deadline deal to a contender. Bruney has been inconsistent but also has a ton of potential. He certainly represents an upgrade over what the Devil Rays have now. Baldelli is a terrific athlete capable of playing all three outfield positions. He is only 26 years old and has room to develop. Rocco has the talent to become a 20-20 man in centerfield (some think 30-30 is his ceiling). He is worth the risk for a pair of relievers with attitude problems. He would be a terrific fourth outfielder. In a backup role, the Yankees could limit his playing time, reducing the risk of injury. Even with the money sent with Farnsworth, Baldelli would cost about the same as having Farnsworth and Bruney. He is more likely to contribute in a positive way.
Engineer a three way trade with the Yankees receiving Jon Garland, Adam Eaton, Michael Bourn, and Scott Mathieson the Phillies receiving Mike Mussina, and the White Sox receiving Pat Burrell:
Mike Mussina has been wonderful for the Yankees, but he was very up and down in 2007. He could probably be an adequate fifth starter in 2008, but his diminished stuff would serve him better against the weaker lineups in the National League. The Phillies are looking for starting pitching. Moose would likely waive his no-trade clause to go to Philadelphia because it is a bit closer to his Montoursville, Pennsylvania, home than New York is. In the process, the Phils would free up funds for their free agent shopping by dealing Burrell, a guy they have been trying to dump for a while, to the White Sox, a team in need of some offensive punch in the outfield. The White Sox have been inclined to deal Garland and his hefty $12 million salary for some time. The Yanks pick him up. There is a temptation to put Ian Kennedy into the rotation along with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. It certainly would be fun to see a big three of young homegrown Yankees in 2008, but that would be a mistake. All of these young pitchers are going to need to be on limited innings to protect their developing arms. Three pitchers on pitch counts would put a big load onto the bullpen. Instead, the Yankees could use Garland as a fifth starter. Garland is a 28 year old innings eater. He threw 208.1 innings in 2007, his lowest total since 2003. He also has big game experience. Garland is not the ace he looked like in 2005, but he would be one of the league’s best fifth starters. The Yankees also take Eaton off Philadelphia’s hands. Eaton signed a big contract prior to the season but was awful. Mussina’s and Eaton’s salaries are almost a wash. Because the Yankees absorbed Eaton in this salary dump, the Phillies will throw in Michael Bourn, a speedy 24 year old capable of playing all three outfield positions, and Mathieson, a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery who could develop into a 2 starter or a closer.
Trade Adam Eaton (with $8 million) to the Rockies for Jeff Baker:
The Rockies are going to look for starting pitching depth over the offseason. They could be inclined to think that a pitcher with Eaton’s stuff needs a change of scenery and that returning to the National League West would do him well. With the Yankees picking up half of his salary, he would become quite affordable. Baker is a 26 year old with a nice righty bat, capable of playing corner infield and corner outfield positions. He could prove to be quite valuable for the Yanks.
Trade Jason Giambi (with $11 million) to the Angels for Tom Mendoza and Jose Arredondo:
The Yankees do not really have a spot for Giambi. He is still a feared hitter, but he cannot play the field at all, limiting the team’s flexibility. After yet another early exit, the Angels are going to push hard to upgrade their offense. Giambi has a home in Southern California, making it likely he would waive his no-trade clause. The Yankees could also play hardball, informing him that he will be a bench player if he refuses to waive it. Hideki Matsui’s longer contract dictates that he has more of a future on the club than Giambi. If Alex Rodriguez is off the table, the Angels will have to go back to the drawing board. With a subsidy, Giambi becomes an attractive option. He is a better clubhouse guy and has less baggage than Barry Bonds would. Jason did have an injury-plagued 2007 that affected his production, but the Yankees were still able to get a big return for Gary Sheffield a year ago under similar circumstances. The Angels have a ton of young pitching. They could part with some of it to give their lineup more punch. Arredondo is a converted shortstop with a very live fastball and is developing secondary pitches. His ceiling is very high, and it appears he is starting to put it all together after a strong season of pitching in the minors. Mendoza is not that close to the Majors but has an excellent fastball and a plus curve. If he can improve his control and command, he will become a quality hurler in short order.
Sign Kosuke Fukudome to a 4 year/$52 million contract:
Fukudome is the latest Japanese star primed to make the jump to America. He is a .305 career hitter in Japan, but his patience makes him stand out. Fukudome has not posted an on base percentage lower than .430 since 2005. It was .443 in 2007. Fukudome wears out pitchers and extends innings. Many Japanese sluggers struggle with the longer fences in America, but Fukudome has a line drive stroke, which will make him a prolific gap to gap doubles hitter. Fukudome is capable of playing an adequate centerfield, but he would shift to left with the Yankees. He would be phenomenal defensively as a corner outfielder as he has good range and a rocket for an arm. He also would have a mentor, Hideki Matsui, to aid his transition to the Majors. Fukudome is something of an unknown, which will make him cheaper than most free agent outfielders. Kosuke has enough service time to become a free agent so there will be no posting fee. He keeps a low profile as well. He is all business when he comes to the ballpark. Fukudome would be a perfect fit for the Yanks.
Sign Hitoki Iwase to a 3 year/$18 million contract:
Iwase might go down as the greatest closer in Japanese baseball history. Like his teammate with the Chunichi Dragons, Fukudome, the lefty is a free agent, meaning no posting fee. He throws a fastball in the low 90’s and a devastating slider in the mid 80’s. Iwase can be a top setup man in America. Even though Japanese starters have had mixed results in the Major Leagues, the success rate is much higher for relievers (Hasegawa, Sasaki, Saito, Okajima, etc.).
Trade Kei Igawa to the Padres for Cla Meredith:
Igawa was an enormous disappointment. His funky delivery and success pitching on short notice against Boston in April and Tampa Bay in September suggest that he might be better suited for a relief role, but the Yankees can find similar production from somebody else for cheaper. San Diego indicated interest in Igawa during the season. In a park built for flyball pitchers and against weaker competition, Igawa might be a viable option for the Padres. In exchange, the Yankees will get Meredith, the former Boston farmhand, who has pitched well in two years for the Padres. He came back down to earth in 2007 after a dominant 2006 but is still a viable bullpen arm. There are reports that San Diego was willing to part with him for Igawa back in August.
Sign Mark Prior to a 2 year/$10 million contract:
The Cubs are likely to nontender Prior. This move might elicit some groans given his injury history, but Prior has a lot of upside. His first few injuries were not serious or recurring. Over the past three years, he was plagued by shoulder issues that the Cubs never properly diagnosed or treated until James Andrews saw them and did corrective surgery. For the first time in a while, he is actually healthy. His fastball might go down in velocity, but it still will be a viable weapon to go with an outstanding curve and changeup. He is only going to be 27. He has time to regain the form that had him as an elite prospect. This is another instance where a big market team can gamble. Since the Yanks will have plenty of rotation depth, they can bring Prior along slowly. He can start either in the minors or as a long man out of the bullpen. If they can build him up to take a rotation spot, this signing can become a coup. If not, only money will be lost.
Trade Jose Arrodondo, Scott Mathieson, Edwar Ramirez, and Kevin Whelan, and Brett Gardner to the Athletics for Huston Street:
The Athletics are in rebuilding mode. Street is eligible for arbitration. Billy Beane has never been opposed to dealing a successful closer before for a good package. He gets a lot in return for his closer in this deal. Oakland receives a quartet of promising pitching prospects here as well as a quality prospect for centerfield in Gardner. None of these players have any Major League service time so the A’s can control them for some time. The Yankees give up a lot, but they do have a surplus of pitching depth in the minors. They can absorb this hit. Gardner is promising, but the team also has Melky Cabrera as well as Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata remaining in the system. It is also easy to find bats. Street has established himself as an elite closer at age 24. His strikeout rate just jumped into double-digits in 2007. He is going to be a top short reliever for a long time. He would immediately become the favorite to succeed Mariano Rivera. Games would essentially be over after 6 innings with an Iwase-Street-Rivera combination to close them out. The Yanks have a lot of quality young bullpen options, but it will be good to have another proven guy in there.
Move Joba Chamberlain into the rotation:
All of the bullpen additions free up Joba to step into a starting role. That is ideal for the team. It is easier to find a guy with 2 above average pitches to make a dominant reliever than it is to find a guy with 4 above average pitches to make a dominant starter. The biggest reason that the Yanks have failed to win a World Series since 2000 has been starting pitching. They have lacked a plethora of shutdown starters to go toe to toe with opposing aces. Chien-Ming Wang is a terrific pitcher, but he is not a shutdown ace. The easiest way for the Yanks to find one is through the farm system. Joba has already displayed a mastery of Major League hitters, and Phil Hughes posted a 2.35 ERA in September as his velocity returned in addition to his brilliant postseason long relief. Both are good bets to become frontline starters in 2008. Hughes-Chamberlain could become the game’s top 1-2 punch for years to come.
Convert Humberto Sanchez into a reliever:
Sanchez is one of the high ceiling prospects that the Yanks acquired in the Gary Sheffield trade. He has been plagued by injuries during his career, never throwing more than 116 innings in a season. He has a fresh start in 2007, coming off Tommy John surgery to fix his elbow. The Yankees have quality starting depth. He has a big fastball and a quality slider. To develop into a top starter, his changeup will need development, but he can make a quicker impact as a reliever. Relief work also will limit the wear and tear on Humberto. Depending on how quickly he and J. Brent Cox recover from Tommy John surgery, either could make positive contributions to the 2008 bullpen late in the year. Humberto is looking at 2009 to do anything in New York as a starter as his stuff would still need refinement.
Convert Chase Wright into a reliever:
Wright is not going to make any lasting impact for this organization as a starter. He does not throw a breaking pitch and has numerous talented pitchers behind him. The lefty has enjoyed great success in the minors against lefties. He might have a future as a situational reliever at some point in 2008 or beyond.
Promote Chris Britton:
Britton posted a 3.35 ERA in the American League East for the Orioles in 2006. He posted a 2.51 ERA pitching most of the season in AAA in 2007. He has nothing left to prove. Britton can be a weapon against righties in the back of the bullpen.
There you have it. I feel that all of my moves are realistic, and I have improved the rotation, the bullpen, and the organization’s overall depth. Despite the Igawa trade, the additions of Hillman, Fukudome, and Iwase provide a Japansese flavor. In conclusion, the 2008 New York Yankees:
Lineup
1. Melky Cabrera CF
2. The Great Jeter SS
3. Bobby Abreu RF
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Hideki Matsui DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Kosuke Fukudome LF
9. Nick Johnson 1B
Bench
1. Jose Molina C
2. Wilson Betemit IF
3. Rocco Baldelli OF
4. Shelley Duncan 1B/OF
Rotation
1. Phil Hughes
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Chien-Ming Wang
5. Jon Garland
Bullpen
1. Mariano Rivera CL
2. Huston Street SU
3. Hitoki Iwase SU/Situational Lefty
4. Joey Devine MR
5. Cla Meredith MR
6. Chris Britton MR
7. Mark Prior LR
Ready to step in from the minors
Ian Kennedy SP
Alan Horne SP
Tyler Clippard SP
Darrell Rasner SP
Jeff Karstens SP
T.J. Beam RP
J. Brent Cox RP
Ross Ohlendorf RP
Jose Veras RP
David Robertson RP
Humberto Sanchez RP
Steven White RP
Sean Henn RP
Chase Wright RP
Jeff Baker 1B/3B/OF
Scott Thorman 1B
Andy Phillips 1B/2B/3B/OF
Alberto Gonzalez IF
Michael Bourn OF
